Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 19.382949 21.068336 22.928650 25.153514 27.768161 30.777354 34.554075
2024-10-27 17.416559 19.767263 22.569282 26.233149 31.024556 37.281118 46.462726
2024-11-03 15.524683 18.141342 21.431318 26.025622 32.564083 42.086025 58.349639
2024-11-10 14.244027 17.032076 20.691609 26.093694 34.386492 47.808686 74.850143
2024-11-17 13.296473 16.201615 20.154225 26.276935 36.350017 54.444280 98.307141
2024-11-24 12.521166 15.495322 19.665008 26.398432 38.193449 61.646337 131.633073
2024-12-01 11.777674 14.747656 19.008499 26.118966 39.234039 67.751615 173.054678
2024-12-08 11.219984 14.206180 18.585472 26.132112 40.799612 75.938502 246.808639
2024-12-15 10.681366 13.643582 18.064665 25.885727 41.773948 83.314925 357.851136
2024-12-22 10.203741 13.132870 17.571967 25.609713 42.611888 91.007866 560.314756
2024-12-29 9.791763 12.690464 17.145786 25.390550 43.523190 99.827883 1047.403540
2025-01-05 9.435392 12.308264 16.782838 25.237468 44.556945 110.266048 3126.843759
2025-01-12 9.023349 11.822328 16.221122 24.652070 44.441624 116.457447 28244.469469
2025-01-19 8.919385 11.807671 16.445053 25.646790 48.751330 149.987163 NaN
2025-01-26 8.623650 11.472939 16.095279 25.425041 49.670960 167.702086 NaN
2025-02-02 8.394714 11.231937 15.889819 25.480325 51.452476 196.542858 NaN
2025-02-09 8.200248 11.035431 15.747145 25.651611 53.686813 238.347293 NaN
2025-02-16 8.011665 10.838269 15.588239 25.766066 55.814396 292.207530 NaN
2025-02-23 7.784406 10.566787 15.276545 25.496756 56.544537 336.110972 NaN
2025-03-02 7.609055 10.373162 15.095161 25.508917 58.348411 419.273287 NaN
2025-03-09 7.413422 10.137327 14.821251 25.272116 59.149246 499.688899 NaN
2025-03-16 7.226141 9.908128 14.547082 25.006908 59.782093 598.571693 NaN
2025-03-23 7.056252 9.701809 14.305031 24.796303 60.607025 744.937123 NaN